Saquon Barkley’s 2024 season with the Philadelphia Eagles was nothing short of historic. After signing with the team in free agency, the star running back delivered one of the most remarkable seasons by an NFL running back, amassing over 2,000 rushing yards and setting a new benchmark for explosive plays. However, despite his dominance, NFL analyst Nathan Jahnke from PFF suggests that Barkley could face regression in 2025, particularly in his touchdown production.
A Record-Breaking 2024 Season
Barkley’s 2024 campaign was defined by an unprecedented rate of long touchdown runs. He recorded seven 60-plus-yard touchdown runs, including the playoffs, a feat unmatched in NFL history. For context, the next closest single-season mark is four, shared by Adrian Peterson (2012) and Jim Brown (1963). Barkley’s career total of 11 such runs places him second all-time behind Peterson’s 15, surpassing legends like Derrick Henry, Barry Sanders, and Chris Johnson.
His 13 rushing touchdowns in 2024 marked a career high, but Jahnke warns that this figure may be unsustainable. Playing alongside quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has consistently scored double-digit rushing touchdowns for four consecutive seasons, Barkley faces competition for goal-line carries. Touchdown regression is common for players exceeding 10 scores in a season, and Barkley’s situation makes him a prime candidate.
Why Regression Seems Likely
Jahnke highlights the anomaly of Barkley’s long touchdown runs, noting, “Long touchdowns aren’t very consistent from one year to the next, and those 60-plus-yard touchdowns, in particular, should regress substantially.” While Barkley’s talent and elite volume keep him among the top-10 running backs, replicating his historic explosive run rate in 2025 would be a tall order. Even with his ability to break long runs at a higher rate than most, matching last season’s seven 60-plus-yard scores is statistically improbable.
Surpassing his 2,005-yard rushing total from 2024 would also be challenging. Achieving such a milestone again would likely require Barkley to maintain his extraordinary rate of big plays, which Jahnke views as an outlier compared to other all-time great seasons.
The Offensive Line’s Role in Barkley’s Success
Barkley’s brilliance in 2024 was amplified by a stellar offensive line, which ranked fourth in PFF’s team run-blocking grade. Left tackle Jordan Mailata delivered one of the best run-blocking seasons in PFF history, while right tackle Lane Johnson, at 34, posted a career-high overall grade. Left guard Landon Dickerson showed significant improvement in his fourth year, and center Cam Jurgens, despite not matching the legendary Jason Kelce, held his own in his first season at the position. This elite line was instrumental in Barkley’s ability to break off long runs and reach the 2,000-yard mark.
What to Expect in 2025
Despite the potential for regression, Barkley remains well-positioned for another strong season. As the centerpiece of Philadelphia’s dynamic rushing attack, he will continue to see significant carries behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. While his touchdown numbers and explosive play rate may dip, his talent and workload ensure he’ll remain a top-tier running back.
Jahnke acknowledges Barkley’s unique skill set, stating, “He is still in a position to break more long runs than any other running back.” However, the analyst cautions that expecting a repeat of 2024’s historic performance is unrealistic. Regression in touchdowns and long runs may occur, but Barkley’s overall impact should keep him among the league’s elite.
Final Thoughts
Saquon Barkley’s 2024 season was a testament to his extraordinary talent and the Eagles’ brilliant offensive line. While his touchdown totals and explosive runs may not reach the same heights in 2025, betting against a player of his caliber is risky. Barkley has proven he can redefine expectations, and even with some regression, he’s poised to remain a cornerstone of Philadelphia’s offense.