Saquon Barkley’s 2024 season with the Philadelphia Eagles was nothing short of historic. After signing as a free agent, the star running back delivered a jaw-dropping performance, rushing for over 2,000 yards and setting a career-high with 13 rushing touchdowns. His seven 60-plus-yard touchdown runs, including the playoffs, marked an NFL record for a single season, surpassing legends like Adrian Peterson and Jim Brown. However, despite this remarkable campaign, PFF NFL Analyst Nathan Jahnke warns that Barkley could be in for significant regression in 2025, particularly in his touchdown production.
A Historic Season Sets an Unrepeatable Bar
Barkley’s 2024 season was a statistical anomaly, driven by an unprecedented rate of explosive plays. His seven 60-plus-yard touchdown runs were more than any player in NFL history for a single season, with Peterson (2012) and Brown (1963) tied for second at four each. Barkley’s career total of 11 such runs places him second all-time behind Peterson’s 15. Jahnke emphasizes that this level of long-distance scoring is unsustainable, noting, “Long touchdowns aren’t very consistent from one year to the next, and those 60-plus-yard touchdowns, in particular, should regress substantially.”
The challenge for Barkley in 2025 is the sheer difficulty of replicating such an outlier season. Rushing for over 2,000 yards is a rare feat, and improving upon it would require maintaining an extraordinary rate of explosive runs. While Barkley’s talent and elite volume in Philadelphia’s offense keep him among the NFL’s top running backs, Jahnke believes the odds of matching last year’s touchdown totals are slim, especially with teammate Jalen Hurts, who has consistently scored double-digit rushing touchdowns for four straight years, vying for goal-line carries.
The Offensive Line’s Role in Barkley’s Success
Barkley’s 2,005 rushing yards in 2024 weren’t solely the product of his individual brilliance. The Eagles’ offensive line, ranked fourth in PFF’s team run-blocking grade last season, played a pivotal role. Left tackle Jordan Mailata delivered one of the best run-blocking seasons in PFF history, while veteran right tackle Lane Johnson posted a career-high overall grade at age 34. Left guard Landon Dickerson showed significant improvement, and center Cam Jurgens, despite not matching the legendary Jason Kelce, held his own in run blocking. This elite line created opportunities for Barkley’s explosive runs, but even their continued excellence may not be enough to sustain his touchdown outburst.
Why Regression Seems Inevitable
Jahnke’s analysis highlights the volatility of long touchdown runs as a key reason for expected regression. While Barkley’s skill and the Eagles’ dynamic rushing attack position him to remain a top-10 running back, his 13 rushing touchdowns in 2024 are a prime candidate for a drop-off. Players who score more than 10 touchdowns in a season often see regression, and Barkley’s competition with Hurts for red-zone touches adds further pressure. Jahnke notes, “Barkley is still in a position to break more long runs than any other running back, but it’s implausible he can continue at the same rate.”
Expectations for 2025: Still Elite, But Likely Less Explosive
Despite the likelihood of regression, Barkley remains a cornerstone of Philadelphia’s offense. His combination of talent, workload, and a stellar offensive line ensures he’ll produce at a high level. However, expecting another 2,000-yard season or a repeat of his record-breaking long touchdown runs is a tall order. While regression in touchdown production seems probable, Barkley’s overall impact should keep him among the NFL’s elite. Betting against him entirely would be unwise, but a dip in his scoring numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise.