In a season where the New York Yankees have leaned on their young talent to fuel a playoff push, rookie Ben Rice has emerged as a breakout star. Sporting Juan Soto’s old No. 22, Rice has smashed 23 home runs and posted a robust .805 OPS, cementing himself as a vital piece of the Yankees’ lineup. But here’s the kicker: as impressive as his numbers are, they could—and perhaps should—be even better. According to one jaw-dropping metric, Rice isn’t just having a great season; he’s been the unluckiest hitter in all of Major League Baseball.
Enter Weighted On-Base Average, or wOBA, a stat that goes beyond traditional batting average or on-base percentage by factoring in walks, strikeouts, and the quality of batted balls to measure a player’s overall offensive value. It’s a sophisticated way to gauge how effective a hitter is at the plate. But when you pair wOBA with Statcast’s advanced metrics—like exit velocity, launch angle, and barrel rate—you get something even more revealing: expected wOBA (xwOBA). This stat predicts what a player’s wOBA should be based on the quality of their contact.
For Ben Rice, the gap between his actual wOBA (.347) and his xwOBA (.406) is the largest negative differential in MLB. In plain English? The rookie is getting robbed. His batted balls—blistering line drives and towering fly balls—are leaving the bat with elite speed and precision, but they’re finding gloves or falling just short of the seats far more often than they should. It’s as if Rice’s fly balls are cursed, destined to die in outfielders’ mitts instead of landing in the bleachers.
Consider the numbers behind this “curse.” Rice’s average exit velocity clocks in at a scorching 93.4 miles per hour, placing him in the 96th percentile of all MLB hitters. His hard-hit percentage—a staggering 56.3%—ranks in the 99th percentile. These are the kind of metrics that scream “superstar in the making.” When Rice makes contact, he’s crushing the ball with authority, yet the results haven’t fully matched the quality of his swings. It’s the baseball equivalent of rolling snake eyes over and over again.
Despite this rotten luck, Rice’s production is already remarkable. Those 23 home runs? They’re no fluke. His .805 OPS speaks to a rookie who’s already holding his own in the Bronx, where the pressure to perform is as intense as it gets. But the gap between his wOBA and xwOBA suggests there’s untapped potential waiting to explode. If the baseball gods start smiling on him, Rice’s stat line could become downright terrifying for opposing pitchers.
For Yankees fans, this is more than just a quirky stat—it’s a beacon of hope. Rice has already proven he belongs in the big leagues, stepping into a high-stakes lineup and delivering clutch performances. But if his batted balls start finding grass instead of gloves, or clearing the wall instead of dying at the warning track, the rest of the league might need to brace itself. The kid in No. 22 is already a force. When his luck finally turns, he could become a nightmare for pitchers across baseball.
As the Yankees charge toward October, Ben Rice’s “unlucky” season is a reminder that sometimes, the numbers don’t tell the full story. But with every swing, he’s proving he’s more than just a stat line—he’s a slugger with a bright future, ready to turn those “cursed” fly balls into a torrent of home runs.