Making playoffs feels like a 4th-and-17 for Kansas City Chiefs.
With seven games left, however, things don’t look good. They’d not only be out of the playoff picture if the postseason began this week, they’ve also fallen to No. 9 in the conference. Only the top seven AFC teams get in.
But as they look ahead, the Chiefs (5-5) can take solace in math and history.
What is DVOA and why is it important to Chiefs this season?
DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) measures efficiency in teams, units and players against a baseline, taking every play in context of league average, situation and opponent. However, there isn’t a calculus requirement to understand what it says about the 2025 Chiefs.
Take it from the brain of the person who conceived DVOA, Aaron Schatz.
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The head coach of those 2006 Eagles, Andy Reid, also coaches the 2025 Chiefs. So, he knows a few things about finishing seasons. He also held the team’s reins in 2015, the last time Kansas City was 5-5, steering that club to a playoff berth.
He may not have a degree in advanced NFL analytics, but Reid clearly knows how to focus his team on what’s next: Another AFC showdown, against Indianapolis (8-2) on Sunday (12 p.m. CT, CBS/KCTV, Channel 5, 96.5 The Fan).
“I mentioned that to them after the game,” Reid said Monday afternoon. “What can you do? You can get yourself ready to play Indianapolis. That’s what you can do. Everything else is involved with a crystal ball, but you can take care of today and tomorrow and the following day. And let’s start there.”
A fourth-and-17 to save their season
That doesn’t change the feeling that the Chiefs seem to be facing a fourth-and-17 to save their season. But keep in mind, Patrick Mahomes has already converted one of those this season, and an example of why people aren’t driving nails into coffins at Arrowhead Stadium.
“Definitely, there’s a ton to play for still,” center Creed Humphrey told OnSI Tuesday. “And for us, we got a really good opponent coming up this week. They’ve been playing really good ball. For us, it’s about focusing on how we improve and what we can do to make our team better.”
And if they’re finally able to get over that frustrating hump, especially winning the elusive one-score game, there’s also a feeling that the Chiefs could see some of these teams again – in addition to the three division rematches left on their schedule.
“You get to play some teams twice every year,” Humphrey said, “and it’s hard to beat a team twice. So, for us, it’s just about not looking in the past too much. It’s about just focusing on what you can do that week to get better.”
