As the New England Patriots emerge from their bye week, all eyes are on what could be the defining moment of their season: a showdown against division rivals, the Buffalo Bills, at Gillette Stadium this Sunday. At first glance, this matchup carries immense weight, with a Patriots victory securing their first AFC East championship since 2019. But in a stunning revelation that’s sending shockwaves through the NFL, New England has received even better news that positions them as frontrunners regardless of the outcome.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. A win would not only clinch the division title—their first in six years—but also mark just the fifth such achievement in franchise history without Tom Brady at the helm. During Brady’s 18 seasons as the full-time starter, the Patriots captured the crown an astonishing 17 times, failing only once in 2002, his second year under center.
Looking back further, the Patriots’ 47 seasons with other quarterbacks have yielded sparse division successes. They triumphed in 1996 and 1997 with Drew Bledsoe, the former No. 1 overall draft pick, leading the charge. In 1986, Tony Eason started 14 games alongside veteran Steve Grogan’s two, guiding the team to the top. Grogan was also at the forefront in 1978, securing the franchise’s first Super Bowl-era division title. Even earlier, in 1963, the then-Boston Patriots claimed the American Football League East Division behind 33-year-old quarterback Babe Parilli.
Yet, the real bombshell dropped ahead of this pivotal clash—televised by CBS at 1 p.m. Eastern, though not nationwide—comes from The Athletic’s Patriots correspondent Chad Graff. “Everyone knows how important Sunday’s game is. But it’s also worth acknowledging this beforehand,” Graff emphasized. “The Pats are still in great shape, even if they lose on Sunday.”
This optimism stems from The Athletic’s advanced playoff probability model, which runs 100,000 simulations of the remaining season games. Entering the weekend with an 11-2 record, the Patriots boast an 89 percent chance of winning the AFC East against the 9-4 Bills. But here’s the game-changer: even in defeat, New England maintains a robust 75 percent probability of claiming the division—meaning in three out of every four scenarios, they still walk away with the crown.
The good news doesn’t stop there. The model also gives the Patriots a 65 percent shot at the AFC’s top seed, complete with a first-round bye—a far cry from preseason expectations. Oddsmakers pegged New England’s win total at just 8.5, with the Bills favored to extend their five-year AFC East streak to six. Defying the doubters, a victory over Buffalo would elevate their top-seed chances to 84 percent, per the simulations. Even a loss leaves them with a respectable 30 percent odds—nearly one in three—for that coveted position.
This revelation underscores the Patriots’ remarkable turnaround from back-to-back 4-13 campaigns. With resilience baked into their DNA, New England heads into Sunday’s battle not just as contenders, but as a team with destiny firmly in their grasp. Win or lose, the path to postseason glory remains wide open, proving that in the NFL, fortunes can shift as dramatically as a last-second Hail Mary. Fans in Foxborough and beyond will be watching closely as the Patriots aim to drop another bombshell on the field.