The 3-0 Buffalo Bills are set to face the 0-3 New Orleans Saints in Week 4 at home, entering the game as heavy favorites. However, the officiating crew led by referee Land Clark could present a slight disadvantage for the Bills, given Clark’s historical tendency to oversee games with a lower-than-average home team win rate.
Land Clark, an NFL referee since 2020, has a track record that deviates from the league’s norm. While the NFL’s average home team win percentage in 2025 stands at 57.14%, games officiated by Clark’s crew this season have seen the home team win only 33.33% of the time. This trend is consistent with much of Clark’s career. According to Pro Football Reference, his officiating history shows a notable dip in home team success compared to league averages:
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2020: Home Win %: 60.00% (League Average: 49.81%)
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2021: Home Win %: 62.50% (League Average: 51.93%)
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2022: Home Win %: 31.25% (League Average: 56.34%)
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2023: Home Win %: 25.00% (League Average: 56.14%)
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2024: Home Win %: 47.06% (League Average: 54.74%)
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2025: Home Win %: 33.33% (League Average: 57.14%)
The 2022 and 2023 seasons were particularly striking, with home teams winning just 31.25% and 25% of games Clark officiated, respectively—well below the league averages of 56.34% and 56.14%. While the 2025 sample size is small, the pattern persists, suggesting Clark’s crew does not favor the home team, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as lacking “home cooking.”
Clark’s background includes experience as an NCAA official before joining the NFL in 2018 as a field judge. He was promoted to referee in 2020, and his crews have since developed a reputation for games where road teams frequently prevail. This could be a concern for Buffalo, despite their strong start to the season and the Saints’ early struggles.
The Bills remain the clear favorites, given their undefeated record and the Saints’ winless start. Buffalo’s high-powered offense and cohesive team play should give them an edge. However, fans and analysts should keep an eye on Clark’s officiating, as his crew’s historical data suggests a potential challenge for the home team. While officiating is just one factor in a game’s outcome, the Bills will need to stay sharp to ensure their Week 4 dominance isn’t disrupted by unexpected calls.