The NFL offseason is a time of unbridled optimism, where every trade and free-agent signing seems to be a stroke of genius. Teams tout “upside” and “potential,” painting rosy pictures for their new acquisitions. However, the cold reality is that every move comes with risk. For the Dallas Cowboys, who have invested $6.6 million plus draft picks in two key offensive pieces, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell is sounding a note of caution. He’s identified wide receiver George Pickens and running back Javonte Williams as “breakout-or-flop” candidates, suggesting that Dallas’s significant investments could either pay huge dividends or become costly disappointments. Are the Cowboys gambling too much on these high-stakes additions?
The Cowboys’ offseason strategy has centered around bolstering their offense, particularly after a season where they struggled with consistency. Their key acquisitions include trading for wide receiver George Pickens from the Pittsburgh Steelers (a deal that will pay him $3.6 million in 2025 for his fourth-year rookie deal) and signing running back Javonte Williams as a free agent from the Denver Broncos on a one-year, $3 million deal. These two players are expected to inject new life into pivotal roles within the Cowboys’ offensive scheme.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, a respected analyst, has flagged both Pickens and Williams among 15 players across the NFL who could either “break out” or “flop.” This “boom-or-bust” assessment highlights the inherent risk in Dallas’s moves.
George Pickens: The Upside and The Downside
Barnwell sees significant upside for George Pickens due to the Cowboys’ offensive philosophy. Pickens is transitioning from one of the league’s least pass-heavy offenses (Steelers ranked 25th in pass rate on early downs in neutral game scripts before Week 9) to one of its most pass-friendly. The Cowboys, under Dak Prescott, threw at the third-highest rate in similar situations. This shift, combined with Dallas’s faster pace (likely to continue under new coach Brian Schottenheimer), suggests Pickens will see more opportunities.
Furthermore, Barnwell highlights the “massive upgrade at quarterback” for Pickens. Dak Prescott, despite his critics, is lauded for his consistent accuracy, particularly on crucial routes like slants, digs, and back-shoulder throws – routes that Pickens excels at. This improved ball placement could significantly boost Pickens’ efficiency and production.
However, the “bust” side of the equation for Pickens comes with his potential reduction in target share. He commanded targets on over 25% of his routes last year with the Steelers, ranking 25th among wideouts. In contrast, Brandin Cooks, whose role Pickens is ostensibly taking, saw targets on just under 19% of his routes in 2024. This seemingly small difference could translate to an impactful 40 fewer targets over a full season, potentially limiting his overall impact. Additionally, despite his 6-foot-3 frame and large catch radius, Pickens has historically struggled to capitalize on red-zone opportunities, scoring just five touchdowns on 48 targets inside the 20-yard line in his first three seasons. The Cowboys will need Schottenheimer to specifically scheme him open in tight quarters.
Javonte Williams: The Unclear Upside
For Javonte Williams, Barnwell is more skeptical about the outright upside of the signing. The move is viewed as a rationalization for moving on from Rico Dowdle for a similar financial commitment, raising questions about whether Williams truly represents a significant upgrade or just a lateral shift in a committee backfield. Williams is still working his way back from a major knee injury, and while he showed flashes in Denver, his long-term health and consistent burst remain question marks.
The Bottom Line for Dallas
The Cowboys are undoubtedly banking on the positive outcomes for both players. While Williams is likely to be part of a running back committee, George Pickens’ success could be pivotal for the entire offense. A strong season from Pickens would not only elevate CeeDee Lamb’s performance by drawing defensive attention but also unlock opportunities for other key players like Jake Ferguson, Kavontae Turpin, and Jalen Tolbert. The potential is there for both to shine, but as ESPN warns, the risks are equally present.
The Dallas Cowboys’ offseason investments in George Pickens and Javonte Williams embody the high-stakes nature of NFL roster building. While the potential rewards – a more dynamic passing attack and a revamped run game – are enticing, ESPN’s “flop warnings” serve as a stark reminder of the inherent risks. Both players present clear pathways to breakout seasons given their new environment, but also significant question marks regarding target share, injury recovery, and red-zone efficiency. For Cowboys fans, this summer’s optimism comes with a healthy dose of suspense. Will these calculated gambles pay off, or will they contribute to another disappointing season? Only time will tell if these investments turn into “boom” or “bust” for America’s Team. What are your predictions for Pickens and Williams this season?