As the 2025 NFL season kicks off, all eyes are on the electrifying Week 1 Sunday Night Football clash between the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens. This primetime showdown features two of the league’s most dynamic quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who finished first and second in the 2024 AP NFL MVP voting, respectively. The Bills, led by reigning MVP Josh Allen, are favored to win at home in Highmark Stadium, a surprising development given the Ravens’ dominance in their Week 4 matchup last season, where they crushed Buffalo 35-10. So, why are the Bills favored this time? Here are three shocking historical reasons that tilt the odds in Buffalo’s favor.
1. First-Ever Week 1 Clash of MVP Contenders
This game marks a historic milestone in NFL history: it’s the first time two quarterbacks who finished first and second in the previous season’s MVP voting will face off in Week 1. Josh Allen, the 2024 MVP, outshone Lamar Jackson in the voting, despite Jackson’s stellar performance of 45 total touchdowns, 4,172 passing yards, and 915 rushing yards. Allen’s ability to elevate a depleted Bills roster—after losing key receivers like Stefon Diggs—played a significant role in his MVP win. Historically, Allen has thrived in high-stakes matchups against Jackson, holding a 2-1 regular-season record and a 2-0 playoff record against him. This historical edge, combined with the unprecedented nature of this Week 1 showdown, gives Buffalo a psychological and statistical advantage at home.
2. Buffalo’s Unmatched Home Dominance at Highmark Stadium
The Bills’ home-field advantage at Highmark Stadium is one of the most formidable in the NFL. Since 2020, Buffalo boasts the league’s best combined home winning percentage (.820) and a staggering point differential of +577, including playoff games. This historical dominance at home makes them a tough opponent, even for a Ravens team with a strong primetime record (20-3 at home under coach John Harbaugh since 2008). In their recent playoff meeting on January 19, 2025, the Bills capitalized on Baltimore’s mistakes, securing a 27-25 victory with a crucial forced fumble by linebacker Terrel Bernard and a dropped 2-point conversion by Ravens tight end Mark Andrews. The hostile environment in Orchard Park, coupled with Buffalo’s historical success at home, makes them a slight favorite despite Vegas initially flipping the odds to favor Baltimore.
3. Ravens’ Playoff Struggles Under Lamar Jackson
While Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP with an impressive regular-season resume, his playoff performance has been a historical Achilles’ heel. Jackson’s postseason record stands at 3-5, including a 1-4 mark in divisional round and conference championship games. In the 2025 AFC Divisional Round loss to Buffalo, Jackson committed two turnovers—a fumble and an interception—continuing a trend where the Ravens are 0-4 in playoff games when he has multiple turnovers. In contrast, Josh Allen has been a postseason standout, holding the record for the most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL playoff history (609), just ahead of Jackson’s 602. This historical disparity in clutch playoff moments, especially Allen’s ability to outperform Jackson in their head-to-head postseason matchups, gives the Bills a clear edge as they enter Week 1 with momentum from their recent playoff victory.
Critical Analysis: Are the Odds Justified?
Despite the historical factors favoring Buffalo, the Ravens’ 35-10 rout of the Bills in Week 4 of 2024 cannot be ignored. Baltimore’s rushing attack, led by Derrick Henry’s 151 yards and two touchdowns in that game, overwhelmed a Bills defense missing key players like Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, and Taron Johnson. While those defenders are now healthy, the Ravens’ improved defense—bolstered by Kyle Hamilton’s move to deep safety since Week 11—and their physical run game could challenge Buffalo’s home dominance. Additionally, the cold weather expected in Buffalo may favor Baltimore’s power-running style, as they’ve won playoff games in subfreezing temperatures in recent years. However, Vegas odds (Bills favored by 1.5 points with an over-under of 52.5) reflect Buffalo’s historical home strength and Allen’s postseason reliability over Jackson’s.
Conclusion
The Bills’ favoritism in this Week 1 clash is rooted in historical advantages: a unique MVP showdown, an unmatched home record, and Allen’s playoff superiority over Jackson. Yet, the Ravens’ explosive offense and improved defense make this a toss-up. As both teams look to set the tone for 2025, this game promises to be a thrilling chapter in the Allen-Jackson rivalry, with Buffalo’s historical edge giving them a slight nod. Fans should buckle up for a primetime spectacle that could reshape the AFC hierarchy.