The Green Bay Packers have long been a franchise built on identifying and developing young talent, but one of their high-profile draft picks is facing a critical juncture. According to a recent analysis by Pro Football Focus (PFF), third-year defensive end Lukas Van Ness, deemed the team’s “X-factor,” is at a make-or-break point in his NFL career. With an inconsistent pass rush plaguing the Packers in 2024, Van Ness’s inability to deliver on his first-round pedigree has raised eyebrows and sparked concerns about his future in Green Bay.
A Promising Start That Fizzled Out
Selected as the 13th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Van Ness arrived with high expectations. As part of the trade that sent Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets, the Packers moved up to secure the Iowa product, banking on his raw athleticism and potential to bolster their defensive front. His rookie season showed flashes of brilliance, particularly toward the end of 2023, where he recorded four sacks, eight tackles for loss, and 10 quarterback hits across 17 games. However, the anticipated “Year 2 jump” never materialized.
In 2024, Van Ness’s production stagnated. He managed only three sacks, six tackles for loss, and six quarterback hits, a regression that PFF highlighted as a major red flag. According to PFF, Van Ness has accumulated just 42 pressures and a lackluster 8.9% pass-rush win rate over his first two seasons—numbers that fall well below expectations for a player of his draft status. For comparison, Will McDonald, selected two picks later by the Jets, racked up 10.5 sacks in 2024 alone, underscoring the gap between Van Ness and his peers.
The Harsh Truth: Time Is Running Out
PFF’s analysis doesn’t mince words: if Van Ness fails to show significant improvement in 2025, the Packers may look elsewhere to address their pass-rush woes. “Third-year man Lukas Van Ness needs to be at the forefront of the effort,” PFF noted, emphasizing that his underwhelming performance could force the team to explore other options next offseason. The Packers’ pass rush was a glaring weakness in 2024, and despite offseason changes, including a new position coach and Van Ness recovering from a thumb injury that hampered him last season, the clock is ticking.
The harsh reality is that first-round picks are expected to make an immediate impact, especially for a team like Green Bay, which relies on draft-and-develop strategies to remain competitive. Van Ness’s struggles are magnified by the Packers’ failure to significantly address their pass-rush deficiencies in the offseason, making his development even more critical. As PFF points out, consistency is key, and Van Ness himself acknowledges this: “I think it comes down to consistency, being the same guy every single day, doing what’s asked of you with minimal mistakes.”
Reasons for Optimism?
Despite the grim outlook, there are reasons to believe Van Ness could turn things around. A new position coach brings fresh perspective, and a healthy thumb could unlock the explosiveness that made him a top prospect. Van Ness’s work ethic has also been praised, with coaches noting daily improvements during offseason activities. “He’s making daily improvements just like all of our players are,” a coach told Sports Illustrated. “For him, I think the sky’s the limit.”
Moreover, Van Ness’s late-season surge in 2023 suggests he has the potential to be a game-changer. If he can harness that promise and translate it into consistent production, he could become the disruptive force the Packers desperately need opposite Rashan Gary. The team’s defensive coordinator, Jeff Hafley, has had to adjust schemes to compensate for the lack of pressure up front, and a breakout season from Van Ness could stabilize the unit.
The Stakes for 2025
The 2025 season is shaping up to be a defining one for both Van Ness and the Packers’ defense. With Aaron Rodgers now set to face his former team as a Pittsburgh Steeler in a high-profile Sunday Night Football matchup, the spotlight will be even brighter on Green Bay’s young core. Van Ness’s ability to step up could determine whether the Packers can compete in a loaded NFC North, where consistent quarterback pressure is a must to slow down offenses led by the likes of Jared Goff and Caleb Williams.
If Van Ness can’t deliver, the Packers may face tough decisions. The team has a history of moving on from underperforming high picks, and with a deep roster and limited cap space, they can’t afford to wait indefinitely. As PFF’s analysis suggests, Van Ness’s career trajectory hangs in the balance. Will he rise to the occasion and cement his place as a cornerstone of the defense, or will he become another cautionary tale of untapped potential?
For now, Van Ness remains a wildcard—a player with the tools to transform the Packers’ defense but with little time left to prove it. As he put it, “If you can get your teammates to trust you, you can get your coaches to trust you, and you have confidence in yourself, then you’ll be able to go out there and play free.” For the Packers’ sake, they’ll need him to play free—and fast—in 2025.