Saquon Barkley’s 2024 season with the Philadelphia Eagles was nothing short of historic. After signing as a free agent, the dynamic running back delivered a performance for the ages, rushing for 2,005 yards and setting a career-high with 13 rushing touchdowns. His explosive playmaking, highlighted by an unprecedented seven 60-plus-yard touchdown runs (including playoffs), made him a fantasy football juggernaut and a cornerstone of the Eagles’ offense. However, despite his undeniable talent, NFL analyst Nathan Jahnke from PFF warns that Barkley could be in for significant regression in 2025, particularly in his touchdown production.
A Historic Season with Unrepeatable Feats
Barkley’s 2024 campaign was a masterclass in big-play ability. His seven 60-plus-yard touchdown runs in a single season set an NFL record, surpassing legends like Adrian Peterson and Jim Brown, who each had four in their best seasons (2012 and 1963, respectively). Barkley’s career total of 11 such runs places him second all-time behind Peterson’s 15, ahead of greats like Derrick Henry, Barry Sanders, and Chris Johnson. This extraordinary rate of long-distance scores, however, is exactly why Jahnke believes regression is looming.
“Long touchdowns aren’t very consistent from one year to the next, and those 60-plus-yard touchdowns, in particular, should regress substantially,” Jahnke wrote. “He is still in a position to break more long runs than any other running back, but it’s implausible he can continue at the same rate.” The numbers back this up: Barkley’s seven long touchdown runs in 2024 dwarf his previous career high of four, making it statistically unlikely he can replicate such an outlier performance.
Touchdown Regression: A Numbers Game
Barkley’s 13 rushing touchdowns in 2024 were a career-best, but Jahnke points out that players who score in double digits often see a drop the following year. This is especially true for Barkley, who shares the backfield with Jalen Hurts, a quarterback who has consistently notched double-digit rushing touchdowns for four straight seasons. With Hurts commanding goal-line carries, Barkley’s touchdown opportunities could naturally decline, even if his overall production remains strong.
“Barkley is a talented running back who dominated fantasy leagues last season with an unsustainably high rate of long touchdown runs,” Jahnke noted. “He will continue to be a great back who sees elite volume, which alone makes him a top-10 running back, but it will be hard to remain elite due to likely touchdown regression.” While Barkley’s workload ensures he’ll remain a focal point of the Eagles’ offense, matching or exceeding his 2024 touchdown tally seems like a tall order.
Can Barkley Top 2,000 Yards Again?
Rushing for over 2,000 yards in a season is a rare feat, and expecting Barkley to surpass his 2024 total of 2,005 yards is a tough ask, even for a player of his caliber. To do so, he would need to maintain the same historic rate of explosive runs, which Jahnke deems unlikely. While Barkley’s elite talent and vision make him a threat for big plays, the sheer volume of 60-plus-yard touchdowns in 2024 sets an almost unreachable bar.
The Offensive Line: The Unsung Heroes
Barkley’s success wasn’t a solo act. The Eagles’ offensive line, ranked fourth in team run-blocking grade by PFF in 2024, played a pivotal role. Left tackle Jordan Mailata delivered one of the best run-blocking seasons in PFF history, while veteran right tackle Lane Johnson posted a career-high overall grade at age 34. Left guard Landon Dickerson made significant strides in his fourth year, and center Cam Jurgens held his own in his first season replacing Jason Kelce. This dominant line created massive running lanes, enabling Barkley’s record-breaking campaign.
What’s Next for Barkley in 2025?
Despite the looming threat of regression, Barkley remains in an enviable position. The Eagles’ dynamic rushing attack, paired with a top-tier offensive line, ensures he’ll continue to see heavy volume and opportunities for big plays. While his touchdown numbers and explosive run rate may dip, his talent and situation keep him firmly among the NFL’s elite running backs. Jahnke acknowledges this, stating, “Barkley is still in a position to break more long runs than any other running back.” Betting against a player of Barkley’s caliber is risky, but the stats suggest his 2024 season was a once-in-a-lifetime outlier.
In 2025, expect Barkley to remain a force, even if his touchdown totals and long runs come back to earth. The Eagles’ offense, led by Barkley and Hurts, will keep defenses on their toes, but replicating the magic of 2024 may be a challenge too steep for even Saquon Barkley.